Bitcoin Falls Below 200-Week Moving Average as On-Chain Data Shows Over Half of Supply in Loss

Recently, according to Bloomberg, Bitcoin fell below its 200-week moving average during the latest market pullback and is now trading around $61,000. At the same time, on-chain data shows that more than 50% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now in loss, marking the first time this has happened since late 2022.

The report noted that only one month ago, the share of circulating supply in loss was around 30%. The rapid increase suggests that, as Bitcoin declined, more holders saw their cost basis move above the current market price.

The 200-week moving average has long been viewed by the market as an important long-term cycle reference for Bitcoin. A break below this level is often interpreted as a sign that medium- to long-term holder confidence may be under pressure.

However, several key details in the original data remain unclear. These include which specific on-chain cost basis model was used to calculate “supply in loss,” and whether the move below the 200-week moving average refers to a confirmed close below the level or only a brief intraday break.

Based on the information currently available, the data mainly points to a deterioration in market structure. Beyond the price decline itself, unrealized losses across circulating supply are expanding, and holder behavior may shift from waiting to stop-loss selling, rotation, or selling into rebounds.

For trading markets, the combination of a key technical level breaking down and on-chain losses expanding often increases short-term volatility. This is especially true when leveraged positioning, ETF flows, and spot demand have not yet provided a clear direction. In that environment, the market is more likely to repeatedly trade around key cost basis zones.

Why It Matters

The importance of this news is not about a single day’s price move. It lies in the fact that two medium-cycle signals have weakened at the same time: Bitcoin has fallen below its 200-week moving average, and more than half of the circulating supply is now in loss.

The former affects the market’s view of long-term support, while the latter affects holder behavior and expectations for secondary-market selling pressure.

When the share of supply in loss rises quickly, the market usually focuses on two main risks. The first is concentrated selling by trapped holders during rebounds. The second is forced deleveraging around key price levels.

The current information is still not enough to define a new long-term trend, but it is enough to show that market pricing has shifted from “high-level consolidation” to a phase of “cost basis repricing.”

WEEX View

The core market question is not simply whether Bitcoin has broken below a long-term moving average. The real issue is whether spot holders, ETF flows, derivatives positioning, and older on-chain supply will start moving in the same direction after this level is lost.

For front-line CEX businesses, the most immediate signal is liquidity quality. If unrealized losses continue to spread, natural spot buying may become thinner, while perpetual futures volume and short-term hedging demand may rise. Order book depth may still appear present on the surface, but real absorption will depend more heavily on market makers’ risk budgets.

Once those budgets tighten, sharp wicks and basis dislocations are likely to become more frequent.

The second key point is whether Old Money starts to move. If long-term holders remain largely stable, this may be more of a repricing of leverage and medium-term positions. But if older coins begin moving toward exchanges, or if ETF flows remain under pressure, the move would no longer look like a simple technical break. It would signal a broader reordering of existing capital.

For trading platforms, this could affect liquidity distribution across major BTC pairs, the extent to which altcoins are drained by Bitcoin volatility, and whether cross-market arbitrage opportunities reopen.

The next variables to watch are more concrete than market sentiment. Traders should focus on whether Bitcoin can quickly reclaim the 200-week moving average, whether the share of supply in loss keeps rising, whether exchange net inflows expand, and whether derivatives funding rates and open interest show signs of one-sided pressure.

These factors will determine whether the market is entering a post-panic rebalancing phase or a longer period of token holder rotation.