Data: Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio has reached a historical low, with accumulation wallets having acquired 125,000 BTC
According to CoinDesk, the Bitcoin Sharpe ratio has fallen to -20, a level that has appeared at the bottoms of cycles in 2015, 2018-19, and 2022-23. However, historically, this signal is usually accompanied by several months of bottoming rather than an immediate rebound; in 2015, this indicator stayed in the bottom region for about five months, while in 2018-19 and 2022-23, it was about three months each.
Meanwhile, accumulation wallets absorbed about 125,000 BTC in the first half of June. Exchange reserves have decreased by about 80,000 since February to approximately 2.71 million, with whales withdrawing over 11,000 from exchanges in the past day. Bitcoin rebounded from a low of $59,130 to about $65,800, mainly driven by the US-Iran agreement rather than on-chain indicators. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is the next test, and the dot plot and Fed Chair Warsh's statements on inflation will determine whether the rebound can continue.
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